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Rågsved vs Syrianska FC Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Rågsved

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Syrianska FC

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.6%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.5%1-14.9%1-22.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.1%2-17.8%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-114.3%4+-27.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 61.7% 1.62 +7.9%

Draw 16.6% 24.4% 4.10 -19.2%

Away win 16.8% 23.8% 4.20 -17.7%

Over 2.5 73.0% 75.2% 1.33 -2.9%

Over 3.5 47.5% 55.6% 1.80 -14.5%

BTTS 62.9% 75.2% 1.33 -16.3%

Home O1.5 78.3% 73.5% 1.36 +6.5%

Away O1.5 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.9%

H 67% / xG 3.2-1.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1✓ 7.8%

#3 3–0 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rågsved3.2

Syrianska FC1.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RÅGSVED · PPG 1.88

SYRIANSKA FC · PPG 0.57

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.07 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Rågsved (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +7.9%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -19.2%

Syrianska FC (A) 16.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rågsved face Syrianska FC in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rågsved a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Syrianska FC 17%, so Rågsved are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Rågsved and 1.1 for Syrianska FC (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rågsved are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.57 for Syrianska FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Rågsved vs Syrianska FC Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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