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Lindo FF vs Fittja Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Lindo FF

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fittja

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.7%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.3%1-18.4%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.3%3-17.1%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.7%4+-24.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 50.0% 2.00 +7.4%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Over 2.5 66.1% 69.0% 1.45 -4.2%

Over 3.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

BTTS 64.3% 70.4% 1.42 -8.7%

Home O1.5 62.4% 59.9% 1.67 +4.2%

Away O1.5 43.7% 47.6% 2.10 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lindo FF2.3

Fittja1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LINDO FF · PPG 1.29

FITTJA · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lindo FF (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +7.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Fittja (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lindo FF face Fittja in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lindo FF a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Fittja 24%, so Lindo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Lindo FF and 1.3 for Fittja (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lindo FF are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.57 for Fittja. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Lindo FF vs Fittja Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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