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Karlslund vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Karlslund

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Smedby

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.9%0-26.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-25.9%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 37.7% 2.65 -2.8%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 38.3% 47.6% 2.10 -19.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 70.9% 1.41 -24.6%

Over 3.5 32.3% 48.5% 2.06 -33.5%

BTTS 55.9% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlslund1.3

Smedby1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSLUND · PPG 1.29

SMEDBY · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karlslund (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -2.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Smedby (A) 38.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlslund face Smedby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlslund a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Smedby 38%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karlslund and 1.5 for Smedby (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlslund are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.43 for Smedby. This match finished 1-1.

Karlslund vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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