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Haninge vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Haninge

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Farsta

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.8%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.0%1-17.1%1-25.0%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.3%3-25.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-18.3%4+-25.8%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 52.4% 1.91 +7.0%

Draw 21.7% 25.3% 3.95 -8.6%

Away win 22.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 80.0% 1.25 -16.0%

Over 3.5 46.4% 59.9% 1.67 -22.5%

BTTS 64.3% 80.0% 1.25 -19.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 57.1% 1.75 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 2–2✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haninge2.5

Farsta1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HANINGE · PPG 2.29

FARSTA · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Haninge (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +7.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.6%

Farsta (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haninge face Farsta in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haninge a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Farsta 22%, so Haninge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Haninge and 1.4 for Farsta (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haninge are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.88 for Farsta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Haninge vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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