Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Houston Dynamo FC II vs Real Monarchs

Houston Dynamo FC II vs Real Monarchs Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Houston Dynamo FC II

PPG 2.75 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Real Monarchs

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+21.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.9%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.2%1-15.5%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-18.1%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.0%4+-112.1%4+-24.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 59.9% 1.67 +19.9%

Draw 17.9% 26.3% 3.80 -19.2%

Away win 10.3% 26.3% 3.80 -36.5%

Over 2.5 65.2% 66.7% 1.50 -2.2%

Over 3.5 43.3% 44.1% 2.27 -1.7%

BTTS 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Home O1.5 78.3% 64.5% 1.55 +21.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 38.3% 2.61 -32.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 72% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0✓ 10.5%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo FC II3.0

Real Monarchs0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO FC II · PPG 2.75

REAL MONARCHS · PPG 0.70

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.19 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo FC II (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +19.9%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.2%

Real Monarchs (A) 10.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo FC II face Real Monarchs in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo FC II a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Real Monarchs 10%, so Houston Dynamo FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Houston Dynamo FC II and 0.8 for Real Monarchs (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo FC II are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.70 for Real Monarchs. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Houston Dynamo FC II vs Real Monarchs Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Next Pro Predictions