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UD Ourense vs Lealtad Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

UD Ourense

PPG 1.87 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lealtad

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-15.9%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-110.1%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.6%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-14.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-13.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 73.5% 1.36 -12.0%

Draw 23.0% 25.0% 4.00 -8.0%

Away win 12.3% 11.8% 8.50 +4.5%

Over 2.5 40.3% — — —

Over 3.5 20.0% — — —

BTTS 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob36.4%

H 65% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UD Ourense1.7

Lealtad0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UD OURENSE · PPG 1.87

LEALTAD · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=64.7%

Win probability 1X2

UD Ourense (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -12.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.0%

Lealtad (A) 12.3%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ourense face Lealtad in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ourense a 65% chance, the draw 23% and Lealtad 12%, so UD Ourense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for UD Ourense and 0.6 for Lealtad (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ourense are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.93 for Lealtad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 3-1.

UD Ourense vs Lealtad Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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