UD Ourense vs Lealtad Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 32 Estadio O Couto· Ourense Sunday, April 19, 2026 16:00

UD Ourense PPG 1.87

3-1 MISS

Lealtad PPG 0.93

Away· +4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ourense face Lealtad in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ourense a 65% chance, the draw 23% and Lealtad 12%, so UD Ourense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for UD Ourense and 0.6 for Lealtad (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ourense are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.93 for Lealtad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.7%

Odds: 1.36 EV: -12.0%

Draw 23.0%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -8.0%

Away 12.3%

Odds: 8.50 EV: +4.5%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.3% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 20.0% Odds: — —

BTTS 36.4% Odds: 2.20 -19.9%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

UD Ourense

1.71

Lealtad

0.59

Model SuggestionHome -12.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -12.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+4.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=64.7%