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Sarriana vs Marino de L. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

Sarriana

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Marino de L.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.4%0-112.4%0-24.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.8%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.6%2-16.4%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 44.4% 2.25 -3.0%

Draw 33.4% 33.3% 3.00 +0.2%

Away win 23.5% 33.3% 3.00 -29.5%

Over 2.5 24.0% 44.4% 2.25 -46.0%

Over 3.5 9.2% — — —

BTTS 31.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob31.2%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 0–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1✓ 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarriana1.0

Marino de L.0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SARRIANA · PPG 1.67

MARINO DE L. · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Sarriana (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -3.0%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.2%

Marino de L. (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarriana face Marino de L. in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarriana a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Marino de L. 24%, so Sarriana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sarriana and 0.7 for Marino de L. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarriana are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.40 for Marino de L.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Sarriana vs Marino de L. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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