Sarriana vs Marino de L. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 32 Estadio Municipal De Ribela· Sarria Sunday, April 19, 2026 16:00

Sarriana PPG 1.67

0-1 HIT CS4

Marino de L. PPG 1.40

Draw· +0.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarriana face Marino de L. in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarriana a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Marino de L. 24%, so Sarriana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sarriana and 0.7 for Marino de L. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarriana are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.40 for Marino de L.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.1%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -3.0%

Draw 33.4%

Odds: 3.00 EV: +0.2%

Away 23.5%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -29.5%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 24.0% Odds: 2.25 -46.0%

Over 3.5 9.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 31.2% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✔

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sarriana

1.02

Marino de L.

0.67

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.40)