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SAT Moreno vs Nautico Hacoaj Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

SAT Moreno

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nautico Hacoaj

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.9%0-115.4%0-24.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-110.9%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.3%2-13.9%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-10.9%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 55.6% 1.80 -21.9%

Draw 33.9% 32.3% 3.10 +5.1%

Away win 22.7% 23.8% 4.20 -2.8%

Over 2.5 34.8% 42.0% 2.38 -17.2%

Over 3.5 18.1% 23.8% 4.20 -14.4%

BTTS 44.9% 48.1% 2.08 -6.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 46.1% 2.17 -30.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.3% 4.30 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.9%

H 43% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.9%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 0–1 15.4%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SAT Moreno0.7

Nautico Hacoaj0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAT MORENO · PPG 3.00

NAUTICO HACOAJ · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SAT Moreno (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -21.9%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.1%

Nautico Hacoaj (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SAT Moreno face Nautico Hacoaj in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SAT Moreno a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Nautico Hacoaj 23%, so SAT Moreno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for SAT Moreno and 0.5 for Nautico Hacoaj (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SAT Moreno are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Nautico Hacoaj.

SAT Moreno vs Nautico Hacoaj Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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