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Vejle BK vs FC Kobenhavn Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 27 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

Vejle BK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Kobenhavn

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+13.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.7%0-26.9%0-35.6%0-4+6.1%1 1-03.1%1-17.5%1-29.2%1-37.4%1-4+8.0%2 2-02.0%2-15.0%2-26.1%2-34.9%2-4+5.3%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.7%3-32.2%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.6% 18.2% 5.50 +7.8%

Draw 18.6% 23.8% 4.20 -21.9%

Away win 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Over 2.5 72.4% 63.7% 1.57 +13.7%

Over 3.5 51.8% 41.7% 2.40 +24.3%

BTTS 66.9% 61.7% 1.62 +8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob66.9%

A 62% / xG 1.3-2.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 1–3 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vejle BK1.3

FC Kobenhavn2.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 51.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VEJLE BK · PPG 1.00

FC KOBENHAVN · PPG 1.46

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

66%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Vejle BK (H) 19.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.8%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -21.9%

FC Kobenhavn (A) 61.8%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vejle BK face FC Kobenhavn in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vejle BK a 20% chance, the draw 19% and FC Kobenhavn 62%, so FC Kobenhavn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vejle BK and 2.4 for FC Kobenhavn (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vejle BK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.46 for FC Kobenhavn. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Vejle BK vs FC Kobenhavn Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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