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Corinthians U20 vs Ferroviária U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Corinthians U20

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ferroviária U20

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.2%0-17.5%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.2%1-19.4%1-21.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.2%2-15.9%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.4%3-12.5%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 16.6% — — —

Over 2.5 36.3% — — —

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 44.9% — — —

Home O1.5 36.0% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.9%

H 56% / xG 1.3-0.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.2%

#2 0–0 19.2%

#3 2–0 15.2%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians U201.3

Ferroviária U200.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS U20 · PPG 3.00

FERROVIÁRIA U20 · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians U20 (H) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ferroviária U20 (A) 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians U20 face Ferroviária U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians U20 a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Ferroviária U20 17%, so Corinthians U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Corinthians U20 and 0.4 for Ferroviária U20 (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians U20 are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Ferroviária U20. This match finished 4-0.

Corinthians U20 vs Ferroviária U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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