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Atlético Mineiro W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Atlético Mineiro W

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bahia W

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.5%0-26.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.7%1-112.3%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.6%2-17.9%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 22.7% 4.40 +67.6%

Draw 26.1% 27.8% 3.60 -3.6%

Away win 35.8% 59.5% 1.68 -39.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 27.4% 3.65 +17.9%

BTTS 54.6% 51.8% 1.93 +5.4%

Home O1.5 37.2% 26.3% 3.80 +41.4%

Away O1.5 43.7% 54.1% 1.85 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.8%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Mineiro W1.3

Bahia W1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO MINEIRO W · PPG 0.67

BAHIA W · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Mineiro W (H) 38.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +67.6%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.6%

Bahia W (A) 35.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -39.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Mineiro W face Bahia W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Mineiro W a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Bahia W 36%, so Atlético Mineiro W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atlético Mineiro W and 1.4 for Bahia W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Mineiro W are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Bahia W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +64.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Atlético Mineiro W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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