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El Porvenir vs Yupanqui Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

El Porvenir

PPG 1.18 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Yupanqui

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-114.0%0-26.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.9%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.1%2-16.5%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.3%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 46.5% 2.15 -16.2%

Draw 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

Away win 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.6% 2.35 +3.4%

Over 3.5 22.0% 23.1% 4.33 -2.8%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

Away O1.5 23.9% 29.9% 3.35 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Porvenir1.0

Yupanqui0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EL PORVENIR · PPG 1.18

YUPANQUI · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Porvenir (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -16.2%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.1%

Yupanqui (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Porvenir face Yupanqui in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Porvenir a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Yupanqui 29%, so El Porvenir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for El Porvenir and 0.9 for Yupanqui (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Porvenir are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.50 for Yupanqui. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 0-3.

El Porvenir vs Yupanqui Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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