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Defensores de Cambaceres vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Defensores de Cambaceres

PPG 0.91 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leandro N. Alem

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+33.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.2%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-112.0%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.9%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.3%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 40.0% 2.50 +11.5%

Draw 26.9% 35.7% 2.80 -14.8%

Away win 28.5% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 30.8% 3.25 +73.6%

Over 3.5 32.0% 15.4% 6.50 +108.0%

BTTS 54.6% 40.8% 2.45 +33.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 29.4% 3.40 +54.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 25.6% 3.90 +39.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores de Cambaceres1.5

Leandro N. Alem1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE CAMBACERES · PPG 0.91

LEANDRO N. ALEM · PPG 0.90

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores de Cambaceres (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.8%

Leandro N. Alem (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores de Cambaceres face Leandro N. Alem in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores de Cambaceres a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Leandro N. Alem 28%, so Defensores de Cambaceres are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Defensores de Cambaceres and 1.3 for Leandro N. Alem (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores de Cambaceres are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.90 for Leandro N. Alem. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +108.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Defensores de Cambaceres vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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