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Berazategui vs Centro Español Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Berazategui

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Centro Español

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-112.2%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.4%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 42.0% 2.38 -12.2%

Draw 33.7% 33.9% 2.95 -0.6%

Away win 29.4% 33.9% 2.95 -8.0%

Over 2.5 36.3% 38.5% 2.60 -5.6%

Over 3.5 20.8% 22.2% 4.50 -3.8%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

Away O1.5 23.9% 29.9% 3.35 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

D 34% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1✓ 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berazategui1.1

Centro Español0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BERAZATEGUI · PPG 1.50

CENTRO ESPAÑOL · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Berazategui (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -12.2%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -0.6%

Centro Español (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berazategui face Centro Español in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berazategui a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Centro Español 29%, so Berazategui are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Berazategui and 0.9 for Centro Español (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berazategui are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.45 for Centro Español. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Berazategui vs Centro Español Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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