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Linares vs CD Estepona Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:45

Linares

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

CD Estepona

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.2%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.2%1-110.1%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-16.5%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 16.8% — — —

Over 2.5 54.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 51.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.2%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linares2.0

CD Estepona0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LINARES · PPG 1.60

CD ESTEPONA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Linares (H) 61.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CD Estepona (A) 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Linares face CD Estepona in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linares a 62% chance, the draw 21% and CD Estepona 17%, so Linares are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Linares and 0.9 for CD Estepona (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linares are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.47 for CD Estepona. This match finished 2-3.

Linares vs CD Estepona Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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