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Kauno Žalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Kauno Žalgiris

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hegelmann Litauen

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-12.3%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.8%1-16.2%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.2%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-19.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.8% 76.9% 1.30 -5.4%

Draw 18.1% 21.7% 4.60 -10.0%

Away win 9.1% 11.1% 9.00 -10.9%

Over 2.5 63.5% 63.3% 1.58 +0.3%

Over 3.5 39.7% 41.2% 2.43 -3.5%

BTTS 49.6% 52.4% 1.91 -5.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 17.9% 5.60 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.6%

H 73% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.1%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Žalgiris2.7

Hegelmann Litauen0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS · PPG 1.75

HEGELMANN LITAUEN · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.05 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.82 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Žalgiris (H) 72.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -5.4%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -10.0%

Hegelmann Litauen (A) 9.1%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Žalgiris face Hegelmann Litauen in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Hegelmann Litauen 9%, so Kauno Žalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.6 for Hegelmann Litauen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Žalgiris are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.82 for Hegelmann Litauen. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Kauno Žalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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