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Dalvík / Reynir vs Kári Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Dalvík / Reynir

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kári

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.2%0-24.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.7%1-19.4%1-27.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.1%3-15.1%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 48.8% 2.05 -14.1%

Draw 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -12.1%

Away win 35.3% 35.7% 2.80 -1.2%

Over 2.5 64.7% 71.4% 1.40 -9.4%

Over 3.5 43.0% 53.2% 1.88 -19.2%

BTTS 64.3% 74.1% 1.35 -13.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 63.7% 1.57 -22.8%

Away O1.5 48.2% 53.5% 1.87 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalvík / Reynir1.8

Kári1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DALVÍK / REYNIR · PPG 1.86

KÁRI · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dalvík / Reynir (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -14.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.1%

Kári (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalvík / Reynir face Kári in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalvík / Reynir a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Kári 35%, so Dalvík / Reynir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dalvík / Reynir and 1.6 for Kári (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalvík / Reynir are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.75 for Kári. This match finished 1-1.

Dalvík / Reynir vs Kári Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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