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Olmaliq vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 15:00

Olmaliq

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nasaf

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.4%0-25.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.7%1-112.7%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.6%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 51.7% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 38.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 78%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olmaliq1.3

Nasaf1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OLMALIQ · PPG 1.71

NASAF · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olmaliq (H) 43.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nasaf (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Olmaliq face Nasaf in Uzbekistan - Super League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olmaliq a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Nasaf 30%, so Olmaliq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Olmaliq and 1.2 for Nasaf (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olmaliq are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Nasaf.

Olmaliq vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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