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Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 15:30

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Neftchi

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.4%0-26.4%0-34.2%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.2%1-36.1%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.7%2-34.4%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 45.0% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 50.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 78%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 45% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Samarqand1.4

Neftchi2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.57

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Samarqand (H) 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Neftchi (A) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Samarqand face Neftchi in Uzbekistan - Super League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Samarqand a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Neftchi 45%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dinamo Samarqand and 2.0 for Neftchi (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Samarqand are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.67 for Neftchi.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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