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Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 14:30

Kokand-1912

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Surkhon

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.4%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 51.8% — — —

Over 3.5 29.4% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 38.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 78%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kokand-19121.4

Surkhon1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KOKAND-1912 · PPG 1.33

SURKHON · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kokand-1912 (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Surkhon (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kokand-1912 face Surkhon in Uzbekistan - Super League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kokand-1912 a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Surkhon 28%, so Kokand-1912 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kokand-1912 and 1.1 for Surkhon (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kokand-1912 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Surkhon.

Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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