Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Gresford Athletic vs Newtown AFC

Gresford Athletic vs Newtown AFC Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:30

Gresford Athletic logo
Gresford Athletic
PPG 1.39 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Newtown AFC logo
Newtown AFC
PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.6%0-24.4%0-32.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-04.4%1-18.3%1-28.0%1-35.1%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.2%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.4%3-14.6%3-24.4%3-32.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 39.9%
Draw 22.1%
Away win 38.0%
Over 2.5 67.0%
Over 3.5 44.8%
BTTS 63.5%
Home O1.5 50.8%
Away O1.5 50.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 38% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%
#2 1–2 8.0%
#3 2–1 7.6%
#4 2–2 7.2%
#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gresford Athletic1.8
Newtown AFC1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GRESFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.39

NEWTOWN AFC · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gresford Athletic (H) 39.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 22.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Newtown AFC (A) 38.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gresford Athletic face Newtown AFC in Wales - FAW Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gresford Athletic a 40% chance, the draw 22% and Newtown AFC 38%, so Gresford Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gresford Athletic and 1.9 for Newtown AFC (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gresford Athletic are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.48 for Newtown AFC.

PredictVantage

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