Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Buckley Town vs Denbigh Town

Buckley Town vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:30

Buckley Town

PPG 1.26 · HOME

UPCOMING

Denbigh Town

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.9%0-22.7%0-31.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.5%1-16.6%1-26.2%1-33.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.1%3-15.9%3-25.5%3-33.4%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.8%4+-25.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 29.1% — — —

Over 2.5 71.7% — — —

Over 3.5 48.3% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 50.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob70.3%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buckley Town2.3

Denbigh Town1.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCKLEY TOWN · PPG 1.26

DENBIGH TOWN · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Buckley Town (H) 48.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Denbigh Town (A) 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buckley Town face Denbigh Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buckley Town a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Denbigh Town 29%, so Buckley Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Buckley Town and 1.9 for Denbigh Town (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buckley Town are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.09 for Denbigh Town.

Buckley Town vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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