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Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Hubei Chufeng Heli Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:35

Chengdu Rongcheng II

PPG 1.11 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hubei Chufeng Heli

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-112.4%0-27.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-17.1%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.1%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 48.8% 2.05 -24.4%

Draw 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 35.2% 29.4% 3.40 +19.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 46.5% 2.15 +8.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 25.0% 4.00 +9.1%

BTTS 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 43.1% 2.32 -25.5%

Away O1.5 35.6% 29.2% 3.42 +21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

A 35% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu Rongcheng II1.1

Hubei Chufeng Heli1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU RONGCHENG II · PPG 1.11

HUBEI CHUFENG HELI · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.12, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu Rongcheng II (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Hubei Chufeng Heli (A) 35.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu Rongcheng II face Hubei Chufeng Heli in China - League Two on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu Rongcheng II a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Hubei Chufeng Heli 35%, so Chengdu Rongcheng II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chengdu Rongcheng II and 1.2 for Hubei Chufeng Heli (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu Rongcheng II are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.67 for Hubei Chufeng Heli. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Hubei Chufeng Heli Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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