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Haras El Hodood vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 5 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Haras El Hodood

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Al Ittihad

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-111.4%0-24.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-112.8%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.0%2-17.1%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 22.0% 4.55 +104.8%

Draw 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

Away win 23.4% 50.0% 2.00 -53.2%

Over 2.5 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -16.6%

Over 3.5 11.4% 16.0% 6.25 -28.7%

BTTS 34.3% 42.6% 2.35 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob34.3%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.9%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haras El Hodood1.1

Al Ittihad0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.8% · O3.5 PROB 11.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HARAS EL HODOOD · PPG 1.17

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Haras El Hodood (H) 45.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +104.8%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.7%

Al Ittihad (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -53.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haras El Hodood face Al Ittihad in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haras El Hodood a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Al Ittihad 23%, so Haras El Hodood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Haras El Hodood and 0.7 for Al Ittihad (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haras El Hodood are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.75 for Al Ittihad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +104.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Haras El Hodood vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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