Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Gouna vs Ismaily
El Gouna vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League
Relegation Group - 5 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 49.0% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 54 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 56% / xG 1.0-0.2 / U2.5 12% / NoBTTS 12%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 12.4% · O3.5 PROB 3.5%
Form & verdict
EL GOUNA · PPG 1.00
ISMAILY · PPG 0.46
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.46)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
El Gouna face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Gouna a 56% chance, the draw 36% and Ismaily 8%, so El Gouna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for El Gouna and 0.2 for Ismaily (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 12% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 12% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Gouna are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.46 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-0.