El Gouna vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Egypt - Premier League Relegation Group - 5 Khaled Bichara Stadium· El Gouna Sunday, April 19, 2026 15:00

El Gouna PPG 1.00

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Ismaily PPG 0.46

Home· +14.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

El Gouna face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Gouna a 56% chance, the draw 36% and Ismaily 8%, so El Gouna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for El Gouna and 0.2 for Ismaily (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 12% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 12% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Gouna are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.46 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.1%

Odds: 2.04 EV: +14.4%

Draw 36.2%

Odds: 2.52 EV: -8.8%

Away 7.6%

Odds: 4.90 EV: -62.8%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 12.4% Odds: 3.50 -56.6%

Over 3.5 3.5% Odds: 7.50 -73.8%

BTTS 12.0% Odds: 2.60 -68.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

El Gouna

1.01

Ismaily

0.21

Model SuggestionHome +14.4% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 4.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.46)