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The Cove vs Cumberland United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:30

The Cove

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cumberland United

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.8%0-25.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.7%1-112.8%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.0%2-18.4%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.0%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 35.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 38.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Cove1.3

Cumberland United1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

THE COVE · PPG 1.67

CUMBERLAND UNITED · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

The Cove (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cumberland United (A) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

The Cove face Cumberland United in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Cove a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Cumberland United 35%, so The Cove are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for The Cove and 1.2 for Cumberland United (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Cove are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.90 for Cumberland United.

The Cove vs Cumberland United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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