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Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide Raiders Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Blue Eagles

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Raiders

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.8%0-24.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.4%1-110.0%1-27.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.2%3-15.0%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 46.5% 2.15 -3.3%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 32.6% 40.0% 2.50 -18.5%

Over 2.5 63.8% 69.4% 1.44 -8.1%

Over 3.5 40.6% 50.0% 2.00 -18.8%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 58.8% 1.70 -16.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Blue Eagles1.7

Adelaide Raiders1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE BLUE EAGLES · PPG 2.00

ADELAIDE RAIDERS · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Blue Eagles (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Adelaide Raiders (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Blue Eagles face Adelaide Raiders in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Blue Eagles a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide Raiders 33%, so Adelaide Blue Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Adelaide Blue Eagles and 1.6 for Adelaide Raiders (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Blue Eagles are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.78 for Adelaide Raiders.

Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide Raiders Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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