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Salisbury United vs South Adelaide Panthers Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 21 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 10:00

Salisbury United

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

South Adelaide Panthers

PPG 0.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.0%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.1%1-15.7%1-24.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.1%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.5%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-110.9%4+-27.7%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.3% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.7% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 72.7% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.5%

H 62% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salisbury United2.8

South Adelaide Panthers1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SALISBURY UNITED · PPG 1.00

SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS · PPG 0.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Salisbury United (H) 62.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

South Adelaide Panthers (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Salisbury United face South Adelaide Panthers in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salisbury United a 62% chance, the draw 17% and South Adelaide Panthers 21%, so Salisbury United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Salisbury United and 1.4 for South Adelaide Panthers (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salisbury United are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.10 for South Adelaide Panthers.

Salisbury United vs South Adelaide Panthers Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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