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Adelaide Victory vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Victory

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Salisbury United

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.4%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.2%1-16.6%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.8%2-18.9%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-18.1%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-110.6%4+-24.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 47.6% 2.10 +30.2%

Draw 17.6% 26.3% 3.80 -19.9%

Away win 20.4% 38.2% 2.62 -27.9%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 3.5 42.8% 47.6% 2.10 -10.1%

BTTS 55.4% 71.4% 1.40 -22.4%

Home O1.5 64.0% 62.1% 1.61 +3.0%

Away O1.5 24.7% 46.1% 2.17 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 62% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Victory2.7

Salisbury United0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE VICTORY · PPG 1.60

SALISBURY UNITED · PPG 0.44

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 1.60 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Victory (H) 62.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +30.2%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.9%

Salisbury United (A) 20.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Victory face Salisbury United in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Victory a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Salisbury United 20%, so Adelaide Victory are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Adelaide Victory and 0.9 for Salisbury United (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Victory are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.44 for Salisbury United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.5%.

Adelaide Victory vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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