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South Adelaide Panthers vs Modbury Jets Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 05:30

South Adelaide Panthers

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Modbury Jets

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-19.7%0-210.2%0-37.2%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.4%1-19.4%1-29.9%1-37.0%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.1%2-14.5%2-24.8%2-33.4%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 14.3% 7.00 +36.2%

Draw 21.7% 18.2% 5.50 +11.6%

Away win 55.4% 78.7% 1.27 -29.6%

Over 2.5 61.2% 75.2% 1.33 -18.6%

Over 3.5 37.3% 58.1% 1.72 -35.8%

BTTS 55.4% 64.1% 1.56 -13.6%

Home O1.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

Away O1.5 54.5% 83.3% 1.20 -34.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob55.4%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 0–2 10.2%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Adelaide Panthers1.0

Modbury Jets2.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS · PPG 1.22

MODBURY JETS · PPG 1.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.15 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

South Adelaide Panthers (H) 22.9%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +36.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +11.6%

Modbury Jets (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Adelaide Panthers face Modbury Jets in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Adelaide Panthers a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Modbury Jets 55%, so Modbury Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for South Adelaide Panthers and 2.1 for Modbury Jets (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Adelaide Panthers are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.44 for Modbury Jets. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.8%.

South Adelaide Panthers vs Modbury Jets Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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