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Urartu vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Urartu

PPG 1.89 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Alashkert

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+42.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.0%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-19.7%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.1%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-14.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.4% 46.5% 2.15 +42.8%

Draw 20.7% 30.8% 3.25 -32.7%

Away win 12.9% 32.3% 3.10 -60.0%

Over 2.5 49.8% 51.3% 1.95 -2.9%

Over 3.5 27.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.1%

BTTS 44.0% 57.8% 1.73 -23.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.0%

H 66% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.5%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urartu1.9

Alashkert0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

URARTU · PPG 1.89

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.70

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.89), Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Urartu (H) 66.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +42.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -32.7%

Alashkert (A) 12.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -60.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Urartu face Alashkert in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urartu a 66% chance, the draw 21% and Alashkert 13%, so Urartu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Urartu and 0.7 for Alashkert (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urartu are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.70 for Alashkert. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Urartu vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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