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Rosario Central vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 22:30

Rosario Central

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aldosivi

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-15.1%0-21.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.8%1-18.6%1-21.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.4%2-17.2%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.7%3-14.0%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-12.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 67.1% 1.49 -5.2%

Draw 21.7% 28.2% 3.55 -13.8%

Away win 14.7% 11.5% 8.70 +16.7%

Over 2.5 45.1% 40.0% 2.50 +12.8%

Over 3.5 24.1% 21.1% 4.75 +8.7%

BTTS 45.5% 39.2% 2.55 +16.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 52.6% 1.90 -7.3%

Away O1.5 11.1% 14.3% 7.00 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.5%

H 64% / xG 1.7-0.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 2–0 17.4%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 8.6%

#5 3–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central1.7

Aldosivi0.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.91

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.26 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -5.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.8%

Aldosivi (A) 14.7%

ODDS 8.70 · IMPLIED 11.5% EV +16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central face Aldosivi in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Aldosivi 15%, so Rosario Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rosario Central and 0.4 for Aldosivi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.20 for Aldosivi. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.7%.

Rosario Central vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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