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Union Santa Fe vs Lanus Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 22:00

Union Santa Fe

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lanus

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.6%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-112.0%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 44.6% 2.24 +16.7%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Away win 23.3% 29.0% 3.45 -11.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 40.8% 2.45 +24.0%

Over 3.5 29.5% 21.1% 4.75 +24.1%

BTTS 53.1% 50.0% 2.00 +6.2%

Home O1.5 47.0% 39.2% 2.55 +19.9%

Away O1.5 27.7% 28.2% 3.55 -1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Santa Fe1.6

Lanus1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 1.62

LANUS · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Santa Fe (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +16.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Lanus (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Santa Fe face Lanus in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Santa Fe a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Lanus 23%, so Union Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Union Santa Fe and 1.0 for Lanus (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Santa Fe are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.22 for Lanus. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.1%.

Union Santa Fe vs Lanus Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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