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Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 19:45

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independ. Rivadavia

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.6%0-28.8%0-34.5%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.2%2-16.4%2-24.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 28.6% 3.50 +5.7%

Draw 27.1% 33.8% 2.96 -11.9%

Away win 42.7% 44.6% 2.24 -4.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 39.2% 2.55 +28.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 20.0% 5.00 +26.7%

BTTS 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 27.4% 3.65 +19.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 38.5% 2.60 +24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -8.4%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Junin1.1

Independ. Rivadavia1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 1.78

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Junin (H) 30.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +5.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -11.9%

Independ. Rivadavia (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Junin face Independ. Rivadavia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Junin a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Independ. Rivadavia 43%, so Independ. Rivadavia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sarmiento Junin and 1.5 for Independ. Rivadavia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Junin are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.00 for Independ. Rivadavia. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +33.3%.

Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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