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Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 22:00

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.5%0-115.2%0-26.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.9%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.9%2-15.7%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.0%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 47.2% 2.12 -22.0%

Draw 33.7% 33.8% 2.96 -0.3%

Away win 29.5% 26.0% 3.85 +8.1%

Over 2.5 36.2% 37.0% 2.70 -2.3%

Over 3.5 18.1% 18.2% 5.50 -0.3%

BTTS 45.7% 45.5% 2.20 +0.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.7% 2.65 -14.9%

Away O1.5 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.7%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.5%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 15.9%

#4 0–1 15.2%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boca Juniors0.9

Estudiantes L.P.0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.56

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 1.69 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boca Juniors (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -22.0%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -0.3%

Estudiantes L.P. (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boca Juniors face Estudiantes L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boca Juniors a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Estudiantes L.P. 30%, so Boca Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Boca Juniors and 0.8 for Estudiantes L.P. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boca Juniors are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.88 for Estudiantes L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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