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Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 00:15

Huracan

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Tucuman

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-17.6%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-111.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 47.2% 2.12 +9.0%

Draw 26.2% 32.8% 3.05 -12.0%

Away win 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -10.3%

Over 2.5 45.7% 36.4% 2.75 +25.7%

Over 3.5 27.8% 17.4% 5.75 +35.9%

BTTS 48.7% 44.4% 2.25 +9.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 38.2% 2.62 +18.9%

Away O1.5 20.3% 23.8% 4.20 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huracan1.5

Atletico Tucuman0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HURACAN · PPG 1.78

ATLETICO TUCUMAN · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Huracan (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +9.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -12.0%

Atletico Tucuman (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huracan face Atletico Tucuman in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huracan a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico Tucuman 22%, so Huracan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Huracan and 0.7 for Atletico Tucuman (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huracan are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.67 for Atletico Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +44.0%.

Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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