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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 00:15

Central Cordoba de Santiago

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.2%0-117.4%0-27.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.5%1-112.7%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.7%2-14.7%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-11.1%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 31.3% 3.20 +4.3%

Draw 32.3% 35.0% 2.86 -7.6%

Away win 35.0% 40.7% 2.46 -13.9%

Over 2.5 33.6% 37.0% 2.70 -9.3%

Over 3.5 17.6% 18.2% 5.50 -1.9%

BTTS 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 28.2% 3.55 +15.7%

Away O1.5 20.3% 34.5% 2.90 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.4%

D 32% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.2%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 15.5%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Cordoba de Santiago0.7

San Lorenzo0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL CORDOBA DE SANTIAGO · PPG 1.44

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 1.55 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Cordoba de Santiago (H) 32.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.3%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -7.6%

San Lorenzo (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Cordoba de Santiago face San Lorenzo in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Cordoba de Santiago a 33% chance, the draw 32% and San Lorenzo 35%, so San Lorenzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Central Cordoba de Santiago and 0.8 for San Lorenzo (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Cordoba de Santiago are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.20 for San Lorenzo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.7%.

Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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