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Lanus vs Instituto Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 00:30

Lanus

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Instituto Cordoba

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-19.4%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.3%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-18.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.0%3-13.5%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 47.2% 2.12 -0.4%

Draw 29.1% 33.8% 2.96 -8.3%

Away win 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

Over 2.5 37.3% 34.7% 2.88 +7.4%

Over 3.5 20.2% 16.7% 6.00 +12.7%

BTTS 46.9% 43.5% 2.30 +7.9%

Home O1.5 38.3% 36.4% 2.75 +5.3%

Away O1.5 20.3% 23.1% 4.33 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -8.4%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.9%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanus1.3

Instituto Cordoba0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LANUS · PPG 1.78

INSTITUTO CORDOBA · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lanus (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -0.4%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -8.3%

Instituto Cordoba (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanus face Instituto Cordoba in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanus a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Instituto Cordoba 24%, so Lanus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lanus and 0.7 for Instituto Cordoba (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanus are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Instituto Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%.

Lanus vs Instituto Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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