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Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Central Espanol

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.9%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-113.0%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.4%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 32.3% 3.10 +32.1%

Draw 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.7%

Away win 29.8% 44.4% 2.25 -19.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 22.2% 4.50 +18.0%

BTTS 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Home O1.5 38.3% 30.3% 3.30 +26.4%

Away O1.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Espanol1.3

Liverpool Montevideo1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.70

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Espanol (H) 42.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +32.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.7%

Liverpool Montevideo (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Espanol face Liverpool Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Espanol a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Liverpool Montevideo 30%, so Central Espanol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Central Espanol and 1.1 for Liverpool Montevideo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Espanol are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.64 for Liverpool Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.4%.

Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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