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Zamora vs Osasuna B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Zamora

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Osasuna B

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-15.3%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.1%1-19.4%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.2%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.3%3-14.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-13.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 61.0% 1.64 +10.9%

Draw 22.0% 29.0% 3.45 -24.1%

Away win 10.3% 20.0% 5.00 -48.5%

Over 2.5 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Over 3.5 19.5% 26.0% 3.85 -24.9%

BTTS 33.3% 50.0% 2.00 -33.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.3%

H 68% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.1%

#2 2–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamora1.8

Osasuna B0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMORA · PPG 1.81

OSASUNA B · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.81), Away POOR (0.94) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Zamora (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +10.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -24.1%

Osasuna B (A) 10.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -48.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamora face Osasuna B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamora a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Osasuna B 10%, so Zamora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Zamora and 0.5 for Osasuna B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamora are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.94 for Osasuna B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Zamora vs Osasuna B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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