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Ponferradina vs Barakaldo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Ponferradina

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Barakaldo

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-18.7%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.2%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.6%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 47.6% 2.10 +10.0%

Draw 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.8%

Away win 20.2% 29.4% 3.40 -31.3%

Over 2.5 36.8% 42.6% 2.35 -13.5%

Over 3.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -24.7%

BTTS 40.1% 51.3% 1.95 -21.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.1%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponferradina1.4

Barakaldo0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PONFERRADINA · PPG 1.53

BARAKALDO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Ponferradina (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +10.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.8%

Barakaldo (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponferradina face Barakaldo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponferradina a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Barakaldo 20%, so Ponferradina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ponferradina and 0.8 for Barakaldo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponferradina are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.88 for Barakaldo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Ponferradina vs Barakaldo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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