Ponferradina vs Barakaldo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponferradina face Barakaldo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponferradina a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Barakaldo 20%, so Ponferradina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ponferradina and 0.8 for Barakaldo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponferradina are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.88 for Barakaldo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-0.