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Arenteiro vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Arenteiro

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Merida

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.3%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.3%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.2%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 42.9% 2.33 +7.6%

Draw 25.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.7%

Away win 27.9% 34.7% 2.88 -19.7%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 25.9% 26.0% 3.85 -0.3%

BTTS 51.4% 55.6% 1.80 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arenteiro1.5

Merida1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENTEIRO · PPG 1.19

MERIDA · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Arenteiro (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +7.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.7%

Merida (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arenteiro face Merida in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arenteiro a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Merida 28%, so Arenteiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arenteiro and 1.1 for Merida (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arenteiro are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.73 for Merida. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Arenteiro vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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