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Backa Topola vs Napredak Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group - 31 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Backa Topola

PPG 1.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Napredak

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-16.3%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.5%1-110.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.9%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.0%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 80.6% 1.24 -22.5%

Draw 23.6% 20.8% 4.80 +13.3%

Away win 13.9% 8.0% 12.50 +73.8%

Over 2.5 41.0% 61.7% 1.62 -33.6%

Over 3.5 20.5% 39.2% 2.55 -47.7%

BTTS 38.5% 47.6% 2.10 -19.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob38.5%

H 62% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Backa Topola1.7

Napredak0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BACKA TOPOLA · PPG 1.20

NAPREDAK · PPG 0.27

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Win probability 1X2

Backa Topola (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -22.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +13.3%

Napredak (A) 13.9%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +73.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Backa Topola face Napredak in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Backa Topola a 63% chance, the draw 24% and Napredak 14%, so Backa Topola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Backa Topola and 0.6 for Napredak (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Backa Topola are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.27 for Napredak. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +73.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Backa Topola vs Napredak Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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