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NorthEast Utd vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

NorthEast Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Mohun Bagan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 80.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+21.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-19.4%0-212.7%0-311.5%0-4+15.2%1 1-02.2%1-16.1%1-28.3%1-37.5%1-4+9.8%2 2-00.7%2-12.0%2-22.7%2-32.4%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.2%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.4% 18.2% 5.50 -64.8%

Draw 12.8% 26.3% 3.80 -51.4%

Away win 80.8% 66.7% 1.50 +21.2%

Over 2.5 65.4% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 44.6% 55.6% 1.80 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob44.6%

A 81% / xG 0.6-2.7 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–3 11.5%

#3 0–1✓ 9.4%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 0–4 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NorthEast Utd0.6

Mohun Bagan2.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHEAST UTD · PPG 1.00

MOHUN BAGAN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

NorthEast Utd (H) 6.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -64.8%

Draw 12.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -51.4%

Mohun Bagan (A) 80.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NorthEast Utd face Mohun Bagan in India - Indian Super League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NorthEast Utd a 6% chance, the draw 13% and Mohun Bagan 81%, so Mohun Bagan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for NorthEast Utd and 2.7 for Mohun Bagan (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NorthEast Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Mohun Bagan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 0-1.

NorthEast Utd vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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