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Leobendorf vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Leobendorf

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Parndorf

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.3%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.6%1-111.6%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 43.5% 2.30 +9.7%

Draw 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Away win 27.6% 41.7% 2.40 -20.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 65.4% 1.53 -18.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 43.3% 2.31 -25.4%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 52.1% 1.92 -5.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 51.5% 1.94 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -35.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 0–0 6.0%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leobendorf1.6

Parndorf1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEOBENDORF · PPG 1.75

PARNDORF · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leobendorf (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +9.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Parndorf (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leobendorf face Parndorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leobendorf a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Parndorf 28%, so Leobendorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leobendorf and 1.2 for Parndorf (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leobendorf are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.70 for Parndorf.

Leobendorf vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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