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Donau vs Krems / Rehberg Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Donau

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Krems / Rehberg

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.9%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.1%1-110.9%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 30.8% 3.25 +33.6%

Draw 24.6% 25.0% 4.00 -1.0%

Away win 34.3% 55.6% 1.80 -38.3%

Over 2.5 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 50.0% 2.00 -21.2%

BTTS 62.1% 71.4% 1.40 -13.1%

Home O1.5 47.4% 46.1% 2.17 +2.9%

Away O1.5 48.0% 65.8% 1.52 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -35.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Donau1.6

Krems / Rehberg1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DONAU · PPG 1.58

KREMS / REHBERG · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Donau (H) 41.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +33.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.0%

Krems / Rehberg (A) 34.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Donau face Krems / Rehberg in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Donau a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Krems / Rehberg 34%, so Donau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Donau and 1.5 for Krems / Rehberg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Donau are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.50 for Krems / Rehberg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.3%.

Donau vs Krems / Rehberg Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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