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Skara vs Vänersborgs FK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Skara

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vänersborgs FK

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.7%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.6%1-18.4%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-17.4%4+-23.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 64.5% 1.55 -10.4%

Draw 21.7% 22.7% 4.40 -2.7%

Away win 20.5% 22.2% 4.50 -4.7%

Over 2.5 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Over 3.5 39.5% 50.0% 2.00 -21.0%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 62.4% 71.4% 1.40 -12.6%

Away O1.5 29.3% 39.2% 2.55 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -7.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 7.6%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skara2.3

Vänersborgs FK1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SKARA · PPG 2.71

VÄNERSBORGS FK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Skara (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -10.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.7%

Vänersborgs FK (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skara face Vänersborgs FK in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skara a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Vänersborgs FK 21%, so Skara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Skara and 1.0 for Vänersborgs FK (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skara are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Vänersborgs FK.

Skara vs Vänersborgs FK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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