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Vänersborgs IF vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Vänersborgs IF

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Motala

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-19.9%0-29.7%0-36.4%0-4+5.0%1 1-05.1%1-110.1%1-210.0%1-36.6%1-4+5.1%2 2-02.6%2-15.1%2-25.1%2-33.3%2-4+2.6%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 26.0% 3.85 -7.1%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 55.2% 59.5% 1.68 -7.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% 70.4% 1.42 -13.1%

Over 3.5 37.3% 48.8% 2.05 -23.5%

BTTS 55.4% 70.4% 1.42 -21.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 43.5% 2.30 -25.0%

Away O1.5 50.0% 67.6% 1.48 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.4%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 10.0%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vänersborgs IF1.0

Motala2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄNERSBORGS IF · PPG 0.57

MOTALA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vänersborgs IF (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Motala (A) 55.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vänersborgs IF face Motala in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vänersborgs IF a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Motala 55%, so Motala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Vänersborgs IF and 2.0 for Motala (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vänersborgs IF are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Motala.

Vänersborgs IF vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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