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Vänersborgs FK vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:15

Vänersborgs FK

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Herrestads

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.9%0-24.0%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.7%1-19.2%1-27.5%1-34.0%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.3%3-15.4%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.9%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 38.5% 2.60 +16.5%

Draw 21.7% 28.2% 3.55 -13.8%

Away win 33.6% 43.5% 2.30 -22.7%

Over 2.5 66.7% 66.7% 1.50 +0.1%

Over 3.5 44.3% 45.5% 2.20 -2.5%

BTTS 63.5% 70.4% 1.42 -9.8%

Home O1.5 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vänersborgs FK1.9

Herrestads1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄNERSBORGS FK · PPG 1.29

HERRESTADS · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vänersborgs FK (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +16.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.8%

Herrestads (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vänersborgs FK face Herrestads in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vänersborgs FK a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Herrestads 34%, so Vänersborgs FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vänersborgs FK and 1.6 for Herrestads (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vänersborgs FK are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.86 for Herrestads. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.5%.

Vänersborgs FK vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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