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Stenungsund vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:30

Stenungsund

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Skara

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.0%0-25.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.9%1-19.9%1-28.3%1-34.6%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.2%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.7%3-14.5%3-23.8%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 37.0% 2.70 +20.4%

Draw 21.9% 25.3% 3.95 -8.1%

Away win 33.6% 47.6% 2.10 -29.4%

Over 2.5 64.0% 76.9% 1.30 -16.8%

Over 3.5 42.4% 55.6% 1.80 -23.7%

BTTS 63.5% 78.1% 1.28 -18.7%

Home O1.5 49.4% 57.1% 1.75 -13.6%

Away O1.5 48.0% 65.4% 1.53 -26.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–0 3.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stenungsund1.7

Skara1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STENUNGSUND · PPG 2.00

SKARA · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stenungsund (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +20.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.1%

Skara (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stenungsund face Skara in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stenungsund a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Skara 34%, so Stenungsund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stenungsund and 1.7 for Skara (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stenungsund are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Skara.

Stenungsund vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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